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Projected sudden step-wise increase in risk of large measles outbreaks in the Netherlands as susceptible children enter secondary school in 2025/26

Munday, J. D.

2025-08-29 epidemiology
10.1101/2025.08.27.25334424 medRxiv
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BackgroundMany unvaccinated children were naturally immunised through infection during the last national measles epidemic in the Netherlands (2013/14). Over time susceptibility amongst school aged children in key under-vaccinated populations is likely to increase and warrants investigation. MethodsWe constructed a network to reflect the risk of transmission within and between schools in the Netherlands. Estimating school-level susceptibility rates using historical estimates and vaccine uptake. We evaluated the annual outbreak risk since 2014 projecting to 2030. ResultsAs children born since the 2013/14 outbreak enter secondary school, the connectedness of the school-mediated contact network between susceptible children will increase sharply, resulting in a sudden increase in the risk of large measles outbreaks. ConclusionsWe anticipate a substantial increase in the risk of large measles outbreaks mediated by school-based transmission in 2025 and 2026 as larger numbers of susceptible children enter secondary school.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.