Post-COVID-19 Epidemiological Insights and SEIR Modeling for Future Global Pandemic Preparedness: Lessons from the Western Pacific

ObjectivesThis study analyzes the COVID-19 pandemics trajectory in selected Western Pacific countries from 2019-2023 to derive key lessons for the post-COVID era. It aims to highlight global health system vulnerabilities, particularly in dynamic and diverse regions, by utilizing an extended and context-aware SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model. The study also seeks to provide actionable insights for future outbreak preparedness, specifically addressing population heterogeneity and superspreading events. MethodsTo overcome limitations of official data (e.g., underreporting, inconsistent surveillance), we employed a robust SEIR modeling framework that integrates key contextual variables, such as public health interventions, nuances of vaccination rollout, population mobility, and socioeconomic diversity. Crucially, it incorporates mechanisms to account for transmission heterogeneity, particularly superspreading, thereby enhancing realism and predictive accuracy beyond traditional homogeneous SEIR approaches. ResultsThe findings provide critical lessons and a proactive tool for pandemic preparedness. The analysis demonstrates the quantitative impact of various interventions on disease dynamics, revealing how strategies can effectively mitigate transmission in heterogeneous populations. Simulation outcomes offer long-term projections to support global epidemic planning and response. ConclusionsThis study underscores the essential role of context-aware epidemiological modeling as a vital tool for extracting lessons from past pandemics to strengthen global resilience. Insights from the Western Pacific experience have broad applicability for enhancing preparedness against future emerging infectious diseases.