The Trends of Physical Morphology, Overweight, and Obesity of The Elderly in Xinjiang From 2000 to 2030.

This study aims to investigate the changes and trends in body shape, overweight, and obesity among the elderly in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, it seeks to predict these trends for the next 10 years, providing valuable insights for enhancing the health of the elderly in Xinjiang. Based on the body morphology data of the elderly collected from physical fitness monitoring in Xinjiang in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2014, and 2020, a grey GM(1,1) model was established to explore the dynamic characteristics and future trends of each index. The results showed that all physical indicators for the elderly in Xinjiang showed an upward trend between 2000 and 2020, During this period, the rates of overweight, obesity, and central obesity among the elderly also continued to rise. Specifically, the increase in rates for males was 3.1% for overweight, 13.4% for obesity, and 27.4% for central obesity. For females, the increases were 3.5%, 13.7%, and 21.4%, respectively. These trends are expected to continue over the next decade, with all indicators likely to keep increasing, particularly as central obesity rates rise faster than general obesity rates. In conclusion, the rates of overweight and obesity among the elderly in Xinjiang are increasing year by year. Measures should be taken at multiple levels, including policy, society, and individuals, to curb the prevalence of overweight/obesity, thereby promoting the physical health of the elderly in Xinjiang.