Temporal autocorrelation increases temperature-driven extinction risk by clustering stressful conditions
Robey, A. J.; Kummel, M. T.; Vasseur, D. A.
Show abstract
Environments are becoming increasingly autocorrelated as global climate change progresses, leading to the intensification of deadly events like heatwaves and droughts. Theory shows that temporally-autocorrelated environments generate a higher risk of population extinction; however, little work has been done to incorporate temporal autocorrelation into thermal performance-based projections of extinction risk. Here, we pair stochastic simulation models of population dynamics with systematically generated temperature time series to determine when higher levels of autocorrelation generate greater extinction risk. We show that autocor-relation is a significant mediator of risk under stressful temperature regimes, with important ramifications for forecasting temperature-driven extinctions in ectothermic organisms. We validate our predictions with a factorial experiment in microcosms of the single-celled protist Paramecium caudatum. Taken together, these results provide the foundation for predicting which species and environments face the greatest risks under increasing autocorrelation.
Matching journals
The top 6 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.