Economic Loss due to Health Funding Cuts as Distributed Across Geospatial Units

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) has proposed a 15% cap on indirect research costs and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has terminated or frozen over 5,000 grants between February and August 2025. Nationally, we estimate $16.6 billion in annual future losses from the proposed indirect cost cap and $11.0 billion in current losses from terminated/frozen grants. However, assessing the local economic impacts of realized and proposed cuts to NIH research requires accounting for commuting flows between where individuals work and live. Accounting for commuting flows, we estimate that 2,136 (of 3,144) U.S. counties will experience over $100,000 in economic losses if indirect cost caps are implemented - far more widespread than the 376 counties where NIH-supported grantees are located. Likewise under a commuter model, 989 counties could lose more than $100,000 due to realized NIH grant terminations and freezes, again far more widespread than the 152 counties where affected institutions are located. By incorporating commuting flows, the present study reveals the extent to which biomedical research funding cuts will lead to substantial economic losses in local communities throughout the U.S.