Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls for the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence

High-quality war mortality estimates, such as those that were produced for Kosovo, Iraq, and Darfur play a critical role in illuminating the human cost of war. During the tumult of war they are, however, challenging to obtain due to the conflicts themselves. The Gaza Ministry of Health (GMoH) has provided regular updates to their post-October-7 violent death tally for the Gaza Strip. However, GMoH reports have attracted both criticism and support. Here, we present results from a large-scale household survey, the Gaza Mortality Survey (GMS), which provides independent estimates of war-related deaths between October 7, 2023 and January 5, 2025. Our findings suggest that violent mortality has significantly exceeded official figures. Our central estimate for the extent of GMoH undercount closely matches a separate estimate made using capture-recapture methods. We also find that nonviolent excess deaths, often overlooked in conflict assessments, also represent a substantial burden. These results underscore the feasibility of mortality surveillance methodologies in some highly challenging war-affected settings and provide a crucial empirical foundation for assessing the true human cost of the war.