A continuous-time microparasite model incorporating infection intensity and parasite aggregation

Disease outcomes depend heavily on infection intensity which is often heterogeneous across and within host populations. Most individuals carry low pathogen loads and a few carry high loads, a pattern known as aggregation. While well-characterized in macroparasite systems, aggregation and infection intensity are rarely incorporated into microparasite models. This raises key questions: Do similar mechanisms underlie aggregation in macro- and microparasite systems? And how do aggregation and load-dependent effects shape outcomes such as host suppression and virulence-transmission trade-offs? To address these questions, we developed a novel continuous time microparasite model that allows the pathogen load distribution across hosts to evolve dynamically, shaped by within- and between-host processes. We applied this framework to the amphibian chytrid fungus system involving Batrachochytrium den-drobatidis (Bd), a fungal pathogen threatening amphibian populations worldwide. Our results show that load-dependent mortality reduces aggregation, while faster within-host replication increases it. Aggregation, in turn, weakens host suppression and flat-tens virulence-transmission trade-off, shifting peak transmission to higher replication rates. Overall, our continuous-time microparasite model provides new insights into how infection intensity and aggregation influence host-pathogen dynamics and offers a valuable framework for advancing theoretical and data-driven understanding of how within-host processes scale to population-level disease dynamics for microparasites.