Individual differences in sequential decision-making

1People differ widely in how they make decisions in uncertain environments. While many studies leverage this variability to measure differences in specific cognitive processes and parameters, the key dimension(s) of individual variability in uncertain decision-making tasks has not been identified. Here, we analyzed behavioral data from 1001 participants performing a restless three-armed bandit task, where reward probabilities fluctuated unpredictably over time. Using a novel analytical approach that controlled for the stochasticity in this tasks, we identified a dominant nonlinear axis of individual variability. We found that this primary axis of variability was strongly and selectively correlated with the probability of exploration, as inferred by latent state modeling. This suggests that the major factor shaping individual differences in bandit task performance is the tendency to explore (versus exploit), rather than personality characteristics, reinforcement learning model parameters, or low-level strategies. Certain demographic characteristics also predicted variance along this principle axis: participants at the exploratory end tended to be younger than participants at the exploitative end, and self-identified men were overrepresented at both extremes. Together, these findings offer a principled framework for understanding individual differences in task behavior while highlighting the cognitive and demographic factors that shape individual differences in decision-making under uncertainty.