Back

AI for Mortality Prediction from Head Trauma Narratives

Pham, T. D.; Marks, K.; Hughes, D.; Chatzopoulou, D.; Coulthard, P.; Holmes, S.

2025-02-21 emergency medicine
10.1101/2025.02.20.25322619 medRxiv
Show abstract

Head injuries are a leading global cause of mortality and disability, highlighting the critical need for advanced prognostic tools to inform clinical decision-making and optimize healthcare resource utilization. For the first time, this study introduces a cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) framework designed to predict mortality outcomes from head injury narratives. Leveraging deep learning-based natural language processing techniques, the framework identifies and extracts key features from unstructured text describing injury mechanisms and patient conditions to train predictive models. Validation was conducted on a diverse dataset of 1,500 head injury cases using a stratified holdout approach, with 90% allocated for training and 10% for testing. The one-dimensional convolutional neural network model demonstrated strong performance, achieving averagely 85% accuracy, 74% correct mortality prediction, 88% correct survival prediction, and an impressive area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91. This work highlights the transformative potential of AI in harnessing narrative clinical data to enhance prognostic accuracy, paving the way for more effective, evidence-based management of head injury patients.

Matching journals

The top 3 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
Artificial Intelligence in Medicine
17 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
35.5%
2
PLOS Digital Health
106 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
10.0%
3
Scientific Reports
3612 papers in training set
Top 6%
8.2%
50% of probability mass above
4
PLOS ONE
5266 papers in training set
Top 21%
8.2%
5
Heliyon
152 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
5.7%
6
International Journal of Medical Informatics
26 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
3.5%
7
Patterns
78 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
2.5%
8
Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association
71 papers in training set
Top 1%
2.2%
9
JAMIA Open
42 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.4%
10
Computers in Biology and Medicine
128 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.2%
11
Emergency Medicine Journal
21 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
1.2%
12
PLOS Computational Biology
1863 papers in training set
Top 16%
1.2%
13
IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics
37 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
1.2%
14
PLOS Global Public Health
344 papers in training set
Top 7%
1.1%
15
iScience
1154 papers in training set
Top 33%
0.9%
16
Biology Methods and Protocols
61 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.9%
17
Frontiers in Public Health
148 papers in training set
Top 6%
0.9%
18
IEEE Access
35 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.9%
19
Frontiers in Digital Health
24 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.9%
20
Cureus
68 papers in training set
Top 4%
0.9%
21
Epidemiology and Infection
89 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.6%
22
BMJ Open
601 papers in training set
Top 14%
0.5%
23
Annals of Translational Medicine
18 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
0.5%