Current and future relevance of marine spatial planning for the distribution of epibenthic invertebrate and fish species in a heavily used regional sea

The SNS has recently become a European hub for installations of offshore wind farms (OWF), while extensive areas have been designated as marine protected areas (MPAs). Together with the already noticeable effects of climate warming, the region transforms from an area dominated by free ranging fisheries and shipping into an industrial landscape dominated by stationary activities. To inform decision making processes around the spatial allocation of fisheries, conservation measures and licence areas for offshore renewables in the southern North Sea, we modelled the spatial distribution of 179 epibenthic invertebrate and fish species. We identify both current and future hotspots of epibenthic and demersal fish diversity and their overlap with OWFs and MPAs. Hotspots of epibenthic and fish diversity are mostly found along the English Coast, located within an extensive network of MPA and OWF sites, which may provide opportunities for conservation and fisheries alike. In the central SNS, the MPA network could be complemented by OWF, where co-use regulations with other human uses are excluded, to protect sensitive species as well as epibenthic and demersal fish communities. Scenarios for three different time periods (until 2040, 2070 & 2100) revealed that global warming might cause an increase in the probability of occurrence for more than half of the analysed demersal fish species (n = 63). The applications in our study demonstrate the relevance of comprehensive knowledge about current, near and far future distribution patterns of species and species communities to enhance the effectiveness of marine spatial planning including spatial conservation measures.