Spatio-temporal distribution patterns and ecological correlates of new mammal records in China

AbstractSpecies geographic distributions are central to research in biogeography, macroecology, and conservation biology. However, incomplete or inaccurate knowledge about their spatiotemporal ranges--known as the Wallacean shortfall--hampers our understanding of biodiversity patterns and processes. In this study, we systematically reviewed 192 papers that reported new distribution records of Chinas mammals from 2001 to 2023, covering 150 species in 26 families across 7 orders. We examined the taxonomic, spatiotemporal, and biogeographic characteristics of these newly recorded species. We used Bayesian Phylogenetic Generalized Linear Mixed Models (BPGLMM) to assess how intrinsic traits and extrinsic factors influenced the likelihood of discoveries and partial Poisson regressions to evaluate how species-level attributes, environmental and socio-economic factors shaped the number of new occurrence records across provinces. Our results showed that Chiroptera (n=69), Eulipotyphla (n=26) and Rodentia (n=23) had the highest number of new records. Among provinces, Yunnan (n=31), Guangdong (n=22), and Xizang (n=18) yielded the most newly recorded species. The amount of annual discoveries varied and peaked between 2017 and 2021. The Western Mountain and Plateau (n=39) and the East Hilly Plain (n=33) zoogeographic subregions had the greatest number of newly recorded species, including two new records extending into historically unrecognized zoogeographic realms. Notably, 61 (40.7%) species were found to extend towards the north or northeast of their known ranges, and 32 (21.3%) eastward, mainly due to the sampling bias. Smaller-bodied species and those with broader habitat ranges are more likely to yield new records, and the total number of new records was positively correlated with regional species richness and current survey efforts (r > 0.5, p < 0.05). These findings expand the known distributions of Chinas mammals and provide essential data for mitigating the Wallacean shortfall. They underscore the urgent need for intensified surveys in biodiversity-rich, underexplored regions--especially targeting small-bodied, data-deficient taxa--and for timely updates and data-sharing to better inform conservation strategies.