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Evaluation of stochastic trajectory-based epidemic models using the energy score

2025-01-14 epidemiology Title + abstract only
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Scoring rules are critical for evaluating the predictive performance of epidemic models by quantifying how well their projections and forecasts align with observed data. In this study, we introduce the energy score as a performance metric for stochastic trajectory-based epidemic models. As a multivariate extension of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), the energy score provides a single, unified measure for time-series predictions. It evaluates both calibration and sharpness by consi...

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