The avoidable health burden and healthcare costs related to alcohol consumption in Australia: multistate life table modelling

Background and AimsExcessive use of alcohol is one of the leading risks for mortality and disability globally. In Australia, alcohol was the fifth-highest risk factor contributing to disease burden in 2019. Estimates of the avoidable (future) alcohol related burden can help make the case for investment in preventive measures. This analysis aims to estimate the avoidable burden related to alcohol consumption in Australia. Design, setting, participants and interventionThe Alcohol Policy model (TAP), a proportional multi-state lifetable model was developed and used to estimate the avoidable alcohol-related disease, injury and healthcare cost burden by comparing a scenario where the Australian adult population (aged [≥] 15 years) continues to drink alcohol at current rates to an identical population that consumes no alcohol. Taking 2020 as the base year, an open cohort was modelled over a 60-year time horizon. MeasurementsChanges in population alcohol consumption are modelled to lead to changes in 1) incident cases and mortality from alcohol-related diseases and injuries, 2) long-term health outcomes summarised as health adjusted life years (HALYs) and 3) healthcare costs. Results are reported in single years, over 25 years and 60 years (for HALYs and healthcare costs). No discounting was applied. FindingsOver the first 25 years, elimination of alcohol consumption at the population level could prevent over 25.9 million incident cases of alcohol-related diseases and injuries (89% acute causes, 1% cancers and 10% other modelled chronic diseases). This translates to 5.1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 4.0 to 6.2) million HALYs gained and AUD 55 (95% UI 36 to 75) billion saved in healthcare costs. Over a 60-year period, the potential health benefits increase to 17 (95%UI 14 to 21) million HALYs and is associated with AUD 68 (95%UI 9.6 to 130) billion in healthcare cost-savings. ConclusionOur findings show that the avoidable alcohol-related disease, injury and healthcare cost burden in Australia is substantial. These findings reinforce the need for investment in effective and cost-effective polices that reduce alcohol consumption.