Estimating recent trends in UK alcohol sales from alcohol duty revenue

Background and AimsThe onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant changes in individual-level alcohol consumption and a sharp increase in heavy drinking in the UK. More recently, high rates of inflation, the resulting cost-of-living crisis and reforms to alcohol taxation have affected the affordability of alcohol, but little is understood about how these changes have impacted on alcohol sales and consumption. We aimed gain insights into recent trends in alcohol sales by assessing changes in alcohol duty revenue collected by the UK government since 2020. Design and SettingWe used published data on UK alcohol duty revenue to model trends from 2010-2019. We forecasted these trends through to October 2024 using a novel statistical approach and compared these forecasts to observed receipts. MeasurementsMonthly inflation-adjusted alcohol duty receipts received by the UK Treasury in pounds sterling for beer, cider, spirits and wine. FindingsDuring the pandemic, alcohol duty receipts fell during lockdowns and rose as restrictions were subsequently lifted. Since 2022 alcohol duty receipts have been consistently below the historical trend, with a gradually increasing deficit in wine receipts and comparable deficit in spirits receipts that began sharply in late 2022. The reforms to the alcohol duty system in August 2023 do not appear to have significantly affected these trends. ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the cost of living crisis in 2022/23 has led to a fall in alcohol sales relative to the pre-pandemic trend. The magnitude of this fall differs by beverage type, indicating that wine and spirits drinkers may have changed their behaviour more than beer and cider drinkers.