Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Netherlands, 2020-2022: statistical evidence for a negative association with temperature

In temperate regions, respiratory viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 are better transmitted in winter than in summer. Understanding how the weather is associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility can enhance projections of COVID-19 incidence and improve estimation of the effectiveness of control measures. During the pandemic, transmissibility was tracked by the reproduction number Rt. This study aims to determine whether information about the daily temperature, absolute humidity, and solar radiation improves predictions of Rt in the Netherlands from 2020 to 2022, and to quantify the relationship between Rt and daily weather data. We conducted a regression analysis, accounting for immunity from vaccination and previous infection, higher transmissibility of new variants, and changes in contact behaviour due to control measures. Results show a linear association between logRt and daily solar radiation and temperature, indicating a ratio of Rt in Winter versus Summer of 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4-2.1). The possibility that this association arises from unrelated seasonal patterns was dismissed, as weather data from earlier years provided poorer fits with only small effect sizes. This suggests a causal relationship of solar radiation and temperature with SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, enhancing confidence in using this relationship for short-term predictions and other epidemiological analyses.