Genetically based variation in fitness and carbon assimilation among bur oak populations

Ongoing climate change will negatively impact tree populations unless they are able to acclimate to the changes in their local environment. Effective planning for climate adaptation management requires an understanding of the current state of local adaptation and physiological performance to assess whether populations are at risk of local extinction, to determine if seed movement is appropriate, and to select appropriate seed sources if intervention is needed. We established a new reciprocal transplant experiment (ACE, Adaptation to Climate and Environment) across a latitudinal gradient in North America to examine the impacts of warming on three bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) populations across much of the species range. We established common gardens in Minnesota, Illinois, and Oklahoma with seedlings grown from seeds collected within 50 km of each of those locations from a total of sixty maternal families. We aimed to 1) assess local adaptation in each of the populations using survival and size as fitness metrics, and 2) evaluate physiological responses to different environments along the latitudinal gradient. We found that northern populations are maladapted to hotter climates as evidenced by their low survival, growth, and photosynthetic rates in the warmest common garden. The southernmost population had the highest survival rate, growth rate, and fitness of the three populations in the southernmost garden, providing evidence for local adaptation to the warmest site. However, conditions in the middle garden resulted in the highest fitness and best physiological performance for all populations. Growth and survival were correlated in the middle garden but were decoupled in the northern and southern gardens. This decoupling is likely due to stress associated with more extreme climates at the ends of the gradient that led to greater resource allocation to survival than to growth. Our results suggest that southern seed sources may perform well in warmer conditions in the north brought on by climate change, which has important implications for managers assisting broadly ranged tree species in adapting to climate change.