To nest or not to nest: environmental cues for olive ridley mass nesting events in Odisha, India

Sea turtles of the genus Lepidochelys take part in synchronised nesting events, known as arribadas, where a large number of females emerge simultaneously from the sea to nest on the beach. Despite some evidence for the role of environmental factors, there is considerable uncertainty about both the factors that influence mass-nesting at an annual scale as well as the onset of individual events. We used a multi-decadal dataset from two olive ridley mass nesting beaches in Odisha, India, to identify the environmental factors associated with inter-annual nesting variation, nesting seasonality and the onset of arribadas. Interestingly, the two sites showed different patterns in inter-annual patterns associated with the non-occurrence of arribadas, despite being only 250 km apart. The nesting season was consistently during the dry and cooler part of the year. Arribada start dates were non-uniformly distributed across the lunar phase in Gahirmatha with most arribadas occurring during the first and third quarters. Fast Southern Winds characterised the period before and during the arribada at both sites. Machine learning models (XGBoost) identified the most important parameters for the onset of mass nesting and accurately predicted more than 75% of the start dates. Lunar phase, mean sea level pressure and wind speed and direction were important parameters at both sites. Differences in parameter importance between sites suggest that mass nesting is influenced by the interaction of several environmental parameters, along with site-specific characteristics. Insights into the triggers of mass nesting can thus provide guidance for site-specific management efforts.