Wartime food availability in the Gaza Strip, October 2023 to August 2024: a retrospective analysis

BackgroundThe Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip has damaged much of the territorys food system, exposing vulnerable population groups to poor nutrition. We retrospectively estimated food availability per capita and the contribution of different food sources and categories during the first ten months of the war. MethodsWe described the composition and caloric value of food trucked into Gaza based on United Nations data over the period 7 October 2023 to 31 August 2024 and compared these with the Israeli governments. We supplemented trucking data with information on baseline stocks, agricultural output, air or seaborne deliveries, population denominators and pre-war caloric intake estimates into a probabilistic simulation to estimate caloric availability in both northern and south-central governorates. ResultsBetween October 2023 and April 2024, food trucks entering Gaza remained below pre-war levels. Israeli data offered higher estimates of food weight trucked in but appeared to feature extreme approximation. Following Israels takeover of crossings in May 2024, United Nations data likely featured underreporting, though even Israeli data indicated declining deliveries. The share of food categories changed little during the period analysed, but trucked-in foods caloric value was lowest just as food was scarcest (February-March 2024). Trucks accounted for three-fourths of food in south-central Gaza, but <20% in the north; air and sea deliveries made up a small percentage. During at least 12 weeks in northern and 4 weeks in south-central Gaza, per-capita caloric availability was below the recommended intake. ConclusionsIsrael, as occupying power, did not ensure sufficient food availability throughout the analysis period, and its data appear unreliable. Existing stocks probably mitigated caloric deficits resulting from insufficient deliveries, but air and sea routes added little. Strengthened coordination of food deliveries may be warranted to optimise caloric quantity and dietary diversity despite aid restrictions.