An axis of genetic heterogeneity in autism is indexed by age at diagnosis and is associated with varying developmental and mental health profiles

Although autism has been historically conceptualised as a condition that emerges in early childhood, many autistic people are diagnosed later in life. It is unknown whether earlier and later diagnosed autism have different developmental trajectories and genetic profiles. Using longitudinal data from four independent birth cohorts, we demonstrate that two different socioemotional and behavioural trajectories are associated with age at diagnosis. In independent cohorts of autistic individuals, common genetic variants account for approximately 11% of the variance in age at autism diagnosis, comparable to the contribution of individual sociodemographic and clinical factors, which typically explain less than 15% of this variance. We further demonstrate that the polygenic architecture of autism can be decomposed into two modestly genetically correlated (rg = 0.38, SE = 0.07) autism polygenic factors. One of these factors is associated with earlier autism diagnosis, and lower social and communication abilities in early childhood but is only modestly genetically correlated with ADHD and mental health conditions. Conversely, the second factor is associated with later autism diagnosis, increased socioemotional and behavioural difficulties in adolescence, and has moderate to high positive genetic correlations with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and mental health conditions. These findings indicate that earlier and later diagnosed autism have different developmental trajectories and genetic profiles. Our findings have important implications for how we conceptualise autism and provide one model to explain some of the diversity within autism.