Conserving steppe-land birds under climate change: a gap analysis for the Eurasian Stone-curlew (Burhinus oedicnemus) in the Western Palearctic

Climate change is having dramatic impacts on the distribution of animals. Birds, and especially steppe-land birds, are particularly sensitive to climate change and identifying areas that are critical for their conservation is pivotal, as well as estimating the expected impact on these areas under different climate and land use change scenarios. In-situ climate refugia (areas suitable under both current and future climates) are especially valuable for the conservation of climate-sensitive species, and is therefore important to identify them and evaluate their coverage by protected areas. Via species distribution modelling, we aimed to identify in-situ climate refugia in the Western Palearctic for the Eurasian Stone-curlew Burhinus oedicnemus, an umbrella steppic species of conservation concern. We used a comprehensive dataset of occurrences in the breeding period to fine-tune a Maxent species distribution model and project it under three carbon emission scenarios of increasing severity for the year 2050. We then identified in-situ climate refugia and performed a gap analysis estimating the percentage of refugia falling within the network of currently protected areas. In all modelled future scenarios a northward expansion of suitable breeding habitats was predicted, and suitable areas had similar extents, with a slight increase of the overall suitability under more severe scenarios. According to our results, the Eurasian Stone-curlew has the potential to maintain viable populations in the Western Palearctic, even though dispersal limitations might hinder the colonization of newly suitable breeding areas. In-situ climate refugia were mainly identified outside protected areas, particularly in Northern Africa and the Middle East. Therefore, we advocate targeted actions in climate refugia to promote the conservation of this and other steppe-land species under global environmental change.