Closing the gap in race-based inequities for seasonal influenza hospitalizations: a modeling study.

ImportanceSeasonal influenza hospitalizations pose a considerable burden in the United States, with BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, and other People of Color) communities being disproportionately affected. ObjectiveTo determine and quantify the effects of different types of mitigation strategies on inequities in influenza outcomes (symptomatic infections and hospitalizations). DesignIn this simulation study, we fit a race-stratified agent-based model of influenza transmission to demographic and hospitalization data of the United States. ParticipantsWe consider five racial-ethnic groups: non-Hispanic White persons, non-Hispanic Black persons, non-Hispanic Asian persons, non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons, and Hispanic or Latino persons. SettingWe tested five idealized equity-promoting interventions to determine their effectiveness in reducing inequity in influenza outcomes. The interventions assumed (i) equalized vaccination rates, (ii) equalized comorbidities, (iii) work-risk distribution proportional to the distribution of the population, (iv) reduced work contacts for all, or (v) a combination of equalizing vaccination rates and comorbidities and reducing work contacts. Main Outcomes and MeasuresReduction in symptomatic or hospitalization risk ratios, defined as the ratio of the number of symptomatic infections (hospitalizations respectively) in each age- and racial-ethnic group and their corresponding white counterpart. We also evaluated the reduction in the absolute mean number of symptomatic infections or hospitalizations in each age- and racial-ethnic group compared to the fitted scenario (baseline). ResultsOur analysis suggests that symptomatic infections were equalized and reduced (by up to 17% in BIPOC adults aged 18-49) by strategies reducing work contacts or equalizing vaccination rates. Reducing comorbidities resulted in significant decreases in hospitalizations, with a reduction of over 40% in BIPOC groups. All tested interventions reduced the inequity in influenza hospitalizations in all racial-ethnic groups, but interventions reducing comorbidities in marginalized populations were the most effective. Notably, these interventions resulted in better outcomes across all racial-ethnic groups, not only those prioritized by the interventions. Conclusions and RelevanceIn this simulation modeling study, equalizing vaccination rates and reducing number of work contacts (which are relatively simple strategies to implement) reduced the both the inequity in hospitalizations and the absolute number of symptomatic infections and hospitalizations in all age and racial-ethnic groups. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSWhat interventions might be effective in reducing the observed race-based disparities in seasonal influenza hospitalizations in the United States (US)? FindingsSimulated interventions equalizing comorbidity rates by in marginalized racial-ethnic groups would prevent up to 40% hospitalizations in these groups. Increasing vaccination rates among marginalized communities or reducing work contacts would reduce hospitalizations by over 10% and 20%, respectively, in most racial-ethnic groups and would similarly reduce symptomatic infections. MeaningIncreasing vaccination rates among marginalized communities, decreasing comorbidities in these groups, or reducing work contacts would help reduce the race-based disparities in seasonal influenza hospitalizations in the US.