Inferring causal cell types of human diseases and risk variants from candidate regulatory elements

The SNP-heritability of human diseases is extremely enriched in candidate regulatory elements (cREs) from disease-relevant cell types. Critical next steps are to understand whether these enrichments are driven by multiple causal cell types and whether individual variants impact disease risk via a single or multiple of cell types. Here, we propose CT-FM and CT-FM-SNP, 2 methods accounting for cREs shared across cell types to identify independent sets of causal cell types for a trait and its candidate causal variants, respectively. We applied CT-FM to 63 GWAS summary statistics (average N = 417K) using 924 cRE annotations, primarily from ENCODE4. CT-FM inferred 79 sets of causal cell types, with corresponding SNP-annotations explaining 39.0 {+/-} 1.8% of trait SNP-heritability. It identified 14 traits with independent causal cell types, uncovering previously unexplored cellular mechanisms in height, schizophrenia and autoimmune diseases. We applied CT-FM-SNP to 39 UK Biobank traits and predicted high-confidence causal cell types for 3,091 candidate causal non-coding SNPs-trait pairs. Our results suggest that most SNPs affect a phenotype via a single set of cell types, whereas pleiotropic SNPs might target different cell types depending on the phenotype context. Altogether, CT-FM and CT-FM-SNP shed light on how genetic variants act collectively and individually at the cellular level to affect disease risk.