Climate resilience conserved in global germplasm repositories: Picking the most promising parents for agile plant breeding

Crop diversity is an essential resource for national and international breeding programs aimed at preparing global agriculture for a changing climate to ensure global food security. To do this there are related risks that need to be evaluated (1) does the genetic diversity needed for climate adaptation exist somewhere? And (2) is such genetic diversity accessible? To evaluate these risks, we consider the test case of publicly available genotyped and georeferenced sorghum landraces (n = 1,937) to ask if diversity is sufficient to support breeding for climate change adaptation. Answering these questions allows for characterization of the best potential parents and the geographies that harbor the most potentially promising genetypes for crop improvement. We subset this data into national, regional, and global geographic regions, and complete/mini core collections to understand the potential for climate adaptation in regional germplasm. Study accessions were given a future climate resilience score based on future climatic projections and a genomic adaptive capacity score using genomic estimated adaptive values (GEAVs) generated from environmental genomic selection - EGS) to ask whether this accessible diversity stored in germplasm repositories is potentially sufficient to meet forecasted changes in growing environments under climate change. We find that genomic resilience capacity is highly variable among countries and regions. High geographical variability was also found for climate resilience. To equitably adapt agriculture to future climate conditions, increased accessibility to plant genetic resources is essential.