Projecting international mpox spread in Asia: ongoing global health risk
Asakura, T. R.; Jung, S.-m.; Murayama, H.; Ghaznavi, C.; Sakamoto, H.; Teshima, A.; Miura, F.; Endo, A.
Show abstract
The global mpox outbreak affected many Asian countries in 2023, following a sustained local transmission in Japan. Given the large population sizes and limited vaccine rollout in Asia, the potential risk of global mpox reemergence arising from Asia is of concern. Using a mathematical model incorporating heterogeneous sexual networks among MSM, calibrated to incidence data in Japan, we projected the patterns of international mpox spread across 42 Asian countries. Our simulations highlight countries at a high risk of mpox introductions, many of which were low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in South-eastern Asia. Our analysis also suggests a shifting focus of importation risk from Eastern Asia to South-eastern Asia, and subsequently to Central, Southern and Western Asia, which roughly coincided with the observed spread patterns in 2023. Global cooperation and support are warranted, especially for LMICs with an elevated risk of mpox introduction, to minimise the risk of continued circulation in Asia and beyond.
Matching journals
The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Inferring time-varying generation time, serial interval and incubation period distributions for COVID-19 93%
- Real-time tracking and prediction of COVID-19 infection using digital proxies of population mobility and mixing 93%
- Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China 92%
Similar papers in this journal
- The global landscape of susceptibility to orthopoxviruses: The legacy of smallpox vaccination 92%
- Estimating the impact of the w Mel release program on dengue and chikungunya incidence in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 90%
- Serology-informed estimates of SARS-COV-2 infection fatality risk in Geneva, Switzerland 90%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.