The potential of gene drive releases in malaria vector species to reduce the malaria burden in different African environments

Gene drive technologies are a promising means of malaria control with the potential to cause widespread and sustained reductions in transmission. In real environments, however, gene drive impacts will depend on local ecological and epidemiological factors. We develop a data-driven model to investigate the impacts of a gene drive that causes vector population suppression. We apply the model to sixteen [~]12,000km2 areas of west Africa that span variation in vector ecology and malaria prevalence. We simulate gene drive releases targeting different vector species combinations, and estimate reductions in vector abundance, malaria prevalence and clinical cases in children. Average reductions in vector abundance ranged from 77.3%-99.1% across areas when the gene drive releases targeted all major vector species (Anopheles gambiae, An. coluzzii, An. arabiensis, and An. funestus). Impacts on malaria depended strongly on which vector species were targeted. Consistently strong impacts required releases targeting all vector species, which reduced prevalence by over 90% in all areas. When the major vector species An. gambiae and An. coluzzii were targeted, average reductions in prevalence ranged from no reduction to 72% across areas, and reductions in cumulative clinical cases ranged from zero to 57%. When other new interventions including RTS,S vaccination and pyrethroid-PBO bednets were in place, at least 60% more clinical cases were averted when gene drives were added, demonstrating the benefits of integrated interventions. Our results give new insights into the factors determining the impacts of gene drives on malaria across different African settings.