Back

Risk of Adverse Events Following Monovalent Third or Booster Dose of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination in U.S. Adults Ages 18 Years and Older

Shoaibi, A.; Matuska, K.; Lloyd, P. C.; Wong, H. L.; Gruber, J. F.; Clarke, T. C.; Cho, S.; Lassman, E.; Lyu, H.; McEvoy, R.; Wan, Z.; Hu, M.; Akhtar, S.; Jiao, Y.; Chillarige, Y.; Beachler, D.; Secora, A.; Selvam, N.; Djibo, D. A.; McMahill Walraven, C. N.; Seeger, J. D.; Amend, K. L.; Song, J. N.; Clifford, R.; Kelman, J. A.; Forshee, R. A.; Anderson, S. A.

2024-02-27 epidemiology
10.1101/2024.02.20.24303089 medRxiv
Show abstract

BackgroundThe U.S. FDA authorized the monovalent third primary series or booster doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in August 2021 for persons 18 years and older. Monitoring of outcomes following updated authorizations is critical to evaluate vaccine safety and can provide early detection of rare adverse events (AEs) not identified in pre-licensure trials. MethodsWe evaluated the risk of 17 AEs following third doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines from August 2021 through early 2022 among adults aged 18-64 years in three commercial databases (Optum, Carelon Research, CVS Health) and adults aged >65 years in Medicare Fee-For-Service. We compared observed AE incidence rates to historical (expected) rates prior to the pandemic, estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the Medicare database and pooled IRR across the three commercial databases. Analyses were also stratified by prior history of COVID-19 diagnosis. Estimates exceeding a pre-defined threshold were considered statistical signals. ResultsFour AEs met the threshold for statistical signals for BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines including Bells Palsy and pulmonary embolism in Medicare, and anaphylaxis and myocarditis/pericarditis in commercial databases. Nine AEs and three AEs signaled among adults with and without prior COVID-19 diagnosis, respectively. ConclusionsThis early monitoring study identified statistical signals for AEs following third doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccination. Since this method is intended for screening purposes and generates crude results, results do not establish a causal association between the vaccines and AEs. FDAs public health assessment remains consistent that the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the risks of vaccination.

Matching journals

The top 4 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

50% of probability mass above

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.