The impact of higher uptake of plant-based diets in England: model-based estimates of health care resource use and health-related quality of life

Plant-based diets have grown in popularity in recent years, in part because of the perceived health benefits; higher consumption of vegetables and other healthy foods is associated with better nutrition and reduced risk of disease. In this study, we estimate the potential impact of higher uptake of a 100% plant-based (vegan) diet in England from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS). We estimate the impact in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), health care expenditure, and total net benefit compared to the current level of uptake. This model-based analysis combines estimates for disease prevalence, the relative risk of disease associated with a vegan diet, and disease-specific health state utility values (HSUVs) and health care costs. We conducted a literature review to identify the most suitable inputs to the model, which included estimates for cancer, coronary heart disease, cataracts, diverticular disease, bone fractures, stroke, and type 2 diabetes. The model is open-source and implemented in an interactive online dashboard, allowing for further extension and exploration of the findings. In our base case analysis with 100% adoption of a plant-based diet in England, the total health care cost savings across all considered diseases is around {pound}6.7 billion per year, with 172,735 additional QALYs, and a total net benefit to the NHS of around {pound}18.8 billion when QALYs are valued at {pound}70,000. The majority of potential savings are realised through the avoidance of almost 1.3 million cases of type 2 diabetes. Numerous challenges are associated with estimating the impact of widespread dietary changes in society. However, strong evidence shows that plant-based diets are associated with better health outcomes for some of Englands most significant causes of disease burden. Higher rates of plant-based diet adoption may bring considerable cost savings for the NHS and generate substantial health benefits for the population. Policymakers should consider the relevance of these estimates to their settings and the potential for interventions that support healthy dietary changes that contribute to population health. Future research should seek to identify the causal effects of plant-based diet adoption on health outcomes, and health care resource use across different populations. FundingThis study was funded by a grant from The Vegan Society. Author DeclarationsThe authors are employees of the Office of Health Economics, a registered charity and independent research organisation that receives funding from a variety of sources. Both authors identify as vegan. CS is a member of The Vegan Society.