Housing insecurity and health: a marginal structural model analysis of the impact of housing payment problems and forced moves on mental health, sleep and hypertension in UK adults, 2009-2019

BackgroundHousing insecurity is an escalating problem in the UK but there is limited evidence about its health impacts. Using nationally representative panel data and causally focussed methods, we examined the effect of insecure housing on mental health, sleep and blood pressure, during a period of government austerity. MethodsWe used longitudinal survey data (2009-2019) from the UK Household Longitudinal Study. Outcomes were probable common mental disorder, sleep disturbance due to worry, and new diagnoses of hypertension. The primary exposure was housing payment problems in the past year. Using doubly robust marginal structural models with inverse probability of treatment weights, we estimated absolute and relative health effects of housing payment problems, and population attributable fractions. In stratified analyses we assessed potentially heterogeneous impacts across the population, and potential modifying effects of government austerity measures. A negative control analysis was conducted to detect bias due to unmeasured confounding. ResultsHousing payment problems were associated with a 2.5 percentage point increased risk of experiencing a common mental disorder (95% CI 1.1%, 3.8%) and 2.0% increased risk of sleep disturbance (95% CI 0.7%, 3.3%). Estimates were larger for renters, younger people, less educated, households with children, and people living in areas most affected by austerity-related cuts to housing support services. We did not find consistent evidence for an association with hypertension (RD=0.6%; 95% CI -0.1%, 1.2%). The negative control analysis was not indicative of unmeasured confounding. ConclusionsHousing payment problems were associated with worse mental health and sleep disturbance in a large UK sample. Households at risk of falling into rent or mortgage arrears need more support, especially in areas where housing support services have been diminished. Substantial investment is urgently needed to improve supply of social and affordable housing.