Predictive phage therapy for Escherichia coli urinary tract infections: cocktail selection for therapy based on machine learning models

This study supports the development of predictive bacteriophage (phage) therapy: the concept of phage cocktail selection to treat a bacterial infection based on machine learning models (MLM). For this purpose, MLM were trained on thousands of measured interactions between a panel of phage and sequenced bacterial isolates. The concept was applied to Escherichia coli (E. coli) associated with urinary tract infections. This is an important common infection in humans and companion animals from which multi-drug resistant (MDR) bloodstream infections can originate. The global threat of MDR infection has reinvigorated international efforts into alternatives to antibiotics including phage therapy. E. coli exhibit extensive genome-level variation due to horizontal gene transfer via phage and plasmids. Associated with this, phage selection for E. coli is difficult as individual isolates can exhibit considerable variation in phage susceptibility due to differences in factors important to phage infection including phage receptor profiles and resistance mechanisms. The activity of 31 phage were measured on 314 isolates with growth curves in artificial urine. Random Forest models were built for each phage from bacterial genome features and the more generalist phage, acting on over 20% of the bacterial population, exhibited F1 scores of >0.6 and could be used to predict phage cocktails effective against previously untested strains. The study demonstrates the potential of predictive models which integrate bacterial genomics with phage activity datasets allowing their use on data derived from direct sequencing of clinical samples to inform rapid and effective phage therapy. Significance StatementWith the growing challenge of antimicrobial resistance there is an urgency for alternative treatments for common bacterial diseases including urinary tract infections (UTIs). Escherichia coli is the main causative agent of UTIs in both humans and companion animals with multidrug resistant strains such as the globally disseminated ST131 becoming more common. Bacteriophage (phage) are natural predators of bacteria and potentially an alternative therapy. However, a major barrier for phage therapy is the specificity of phage on target bacteria and therefore difficulty efficiently selecting the appropriate phage. Here, we demonstrate a genomics driven approach using machine learning prediction models combined with phage activity clustering to select phage cocktails based only on the genome sequence of the infecting bacterial strain.