Larval thermosensitivity shapes adult population dynamics in Anopheles mosquitoes

Mosquitoes are vectors of human life-threatening pathogens, posing a significant global health threat. While the influence of temperature on mosquito life-history traits has been extensively studied in laboratory settings, the ecological factors shaping mosquito development and population dynamics in natural environments remain poorly understood. Here, we used a multi-disciplinary approach, integrating field data from Mali, laboratory experiments, and mathematical modeling, to investigate the causal relationships between climate variables and the abundance of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes. Using convergent-cross mapping analyses an adult abundance in the Nanguilabou village, we observed that the dynamics of adult mosquito populations was driven by larval thermosensitivity. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms, we conducted experimental studies that revealed a density-dependent larval thermal response. Through mathematical modeling, we quantified the complex interplay between temperature and larval density, demonstrating that temperature and density have independent, non-synergistic effects on larval developmental speed, mortality, and pupation rates. Our findings provide a mechanistic understanding of how larval development shapes adult mosquito populations, highlighting the significance of multidisciplinary approaches in studying climate-driven mosquito population dynamics.