From overconfidence to task dropout in a spatial navigation test: evidence for the Dunning-Kruger effect across 46 countries

Overconfidence and the Dunning-Kruger effect have been reported in many cognitive domains. However, there is little examination in the field of spatial navigation. Here, we examined overconfidence in navigation ability in 376,836 participants from 46 countries. We tested navigation using our virtual wayfinding task in the app-based video game Sea Hero Quest, examined self-ratings of navigation ability and how many game levels participants had played before they dropped out. The main goal of this analysis was to investigate how performance of overconfident participants influenced the dropout rate from our experimental task embedded in a video game. First, we measured and modelled overestimation at baseline game levels. Age was found to be the strongest predictor of overestimation across the entire sample. Higher age was associated with increased overconfidence in all 46 countries and 11 distinct cultural clusters. Female participants were more likely to overestimate their performance across most of the life course (19-59 years old), however older men (60-70 years old) displayed highest overconfidence amongst all age-gender groups. Overconfidence also varied widely across countries. Secondly, we estimated performance on follow-up game levels for those who were previously identified as overconfident and we found that those who were more likely to display the Dunning-Kruger effect (i.e., poor performance while being overconfident) were predominantly female and older participants. Finally, survival analysis methods with time-dependent covariates revealed that poor wayfinding performance, while being overconfident, was one of the strongest predictors of task dropout. This Dunning-Kruger bias on participants dropout existed universally across all countries in our data.