Temperature and transmission: novel estimates of the effects of temperature on the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum

Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by traits such as mosquito life expectancy, vector competence, and the Extrinsic Incubation Period (EIP, which is the development time of the parasite inside the mosquito). Even though these traits are known to be shaped by environmental temperature and there is considerable concern that climate change could increase disease risk in certain areas, surprisingly, these temperature dependencies are poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to novel experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, EIP and overall competence. We use these data, together with novel estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the potential influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission efficiency due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted.