Drivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha
Faucher, B.; Sabbatini, C. E.; Czuppon, P.; Kraemer, M. U. G.; Lemey, P.; Colizza, V.; Blanquart, F.; Boelle, P.-Y.; Poletto, C.
Show abstract
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) circulated cryptically before being identified as a threat, delaying interventions. Here we studied the drivers of such silent spread and its epidemic impact to inform future response planning. We focused on Alpha spread out of the UK. We integrated spatio-temporal records of international mobility, local epidemic growth and genomic surveillance into a Bayesian framework to reconstruct the first three months after Alpha emergence. We found that silent circulation lasted from days to months and decreased with the logarithm of sequencing coverage. Social restrictions in some countries likely delayed the establishment of local transmission, mitigating the negative consequences of late detection. Revisiting the initial spread of Alpha supports local mitigation at the destination in case of emerging events.
Matching journals
The top 1 journal accounts for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Modelling the effectiveness of isolation strategies for managing mpox outbreaks with variable infectiousness profiles 96%
- Behaviour, booster vaccines and waning immunity: modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era 96%
- Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution 96%
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.