Estimation of Abortions in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina: a Bayesian Approach

Abortion is one of the reasons for hospital discharge among women of fertile age in Argentina. The criminalization of abortion prior to the enactment of the Voluntary Interruption of Pregnancy Act (IVE), coupled with fragmentation of the health system, has hindered the availability of reliable records to quantify induced abortions in the country. Given the lack of information reflecting the magnitude of these practices, it is necessary to perform an accurate estimation to characterize abortion access within the healthcare system. Using a Bayesian approach and abortion records in the province of Buenos Aires in 2021, the incidence of abortions per thousand women of fertile age was estimated. This study, based on a direct case count methodology, is the first of its kind in Argentina. The method used allows for the correction of bias caused by under-reporting of practices. An incidence of 29.92 (Credibility Interval, CI95: [29.38; 30.47]) abortions per thousand women of fertile age was obtained during 2021. The results are consistent with previous national research and agree with estimates made for the region. In conclusion, the estimates of abortion incidence highlight its frequency in the lives of people with gestational capacity, underlining the importance of fully guaranteeing the right to comprehensive sexual health through a wide network of abortion access.