Veni, vidi, vici? Future spread and ecological impacts of a rapidly-expanding invasive predator population

Economic and ecological consequences of invasive species make biological invasions an influential driver of global change. Monitoring the spread and impacts of non-native species is essential, but often difficult, especially during the initial stages of invasion. The Joro spider, Trichonephila clavata (L. Koch, 1878, Araneae: Araneidae), is a large-bodied orb weaver native to Asia, likely introduced to northern Georgia, U.S. around 2010. We investigated the nascent invasion of T. clavata by constructing species distribution models (SDMs) from crowdsourced data to compare the climate T. clavata experiences in its native range to its introduced range. We found evidence that the climate of T. clavatas native range differs significantly from its introduced range and that the most similar climate in North America to its native range is to the north of its current introduced range. We then compared the SDM predictions to current observations of spread. Consistent with predictions, T. clavata appears to be spreading faster to the north than to the south. Lastly, we conducted surveys to investigate potential ecological impacts of T. clavata on the diversity of native orb weaving spiders. Importantly, Trichonephila clavata was the most common and abundant species observed in the survey, and was numerically dominant at half of the sites it was present in. Our models also suggest that there is lower native orb weaver species richness and diversity closer to where T. clavata was initially found and where it has been established the longest, though human population density complicates this finding. This early study is the first to forecast how widely this spider may spread in its introduced range and explore potential ecological impacts of T. clavata, and we call for continued investigation of this invasions effects.