A New Vaccination Assessment Method and Strategy for COVID-19

Optimizing vaccination to reduce COVID-19 death remains a challenge. A new method, Gompertzian Analysis, examines numbers of infectious disease cases and deaths, by age, on log graphs, capturing COVID-19 Lethality (Deaths/Cases) by the Gompertz Mortality Equation. Gompertzian Analysis revealed that each of the first 4 Vaccination Events (primary and boosters) led to a [~]1/3rd reduction in COVID-19 Lethality. These vaccination reductions in COVID-19 Lethality were cumulative, persistent, and undiminished by variants, while vaccinations impact on COVID-19 Infectivity (Cases/Population) was fleeting. Primary vaccination and 3 boosters gave an [~]85% reduction in COVID-19 Lethality, with projections suggesting [~]68% fewer deaths ([~]267,000 to [~]85,000). Projections also suggest that 6 boosters may offer a [~]96% reduction in COVID-19 Lethality, to the familiar level of influenza, with a [~]91% reduction in COVID-19 deaths, to [~]25,000, fewer than automobile deaths. Gompertzian Analysis provides rational vaccination guidelines by age. Gompertzian Analysis points to a strategy molded by multiple vaccinations reducing COVID-19 Lethality, which is persistent, rather than focusing on reducing COVID-19 Infectivity, which is fleeting. Such a strategy, based on accumulating the necessary number of vaccinations ([~]7), and possibly no more, would accept vaccinations limited ability to prevent infection in exchange for its power to prevent death.