Climatic factors and host species composition at hibernation sites drive the incidence of bat fungal disease

Emerging infectious diseases pose a remarkable threat to wildlife, and their incidence will likely be further exacerbated due to climate change. Therefore, developing new, preferably minimally invasive yet effective monitoring systems is crucial for conservation. We investigated whether the occurrence of white-nose disease (WND), a fungal disease of hibernating bats, can be predicted using local climatic conditions and host community composition at hibernation sites. In addition, we used our model to predict the current worldwide potential global distribution of white-nose disease, revealing areas that may be under risk if the pathogen is introduced, and further applied our model to a climate change scenario to illuminate how the potential global distribution of the disease may shift in the future. To achieve this, we fitted a logistic regression model using open-source climate data (mean annual surface temperature (MAST), annual precipitation) and hibernation site census data from 441 hibernacula across Europe. We then applied our model to the current global climatic conditions, as well as a climate change scenario for years 2061-2080, to illuminate the current and future potential global distribution of the disease. We discovered a positive association between the occurrence of WND and Myotis emarginatus, M. myotis/blythii, and M. mystacinus/brandtii, whereas Rhinolophus ferrumequinum and R. hipposideros were negatively associated with the disease. In addition, we were able to detect several areas in the southern hemisphere, that are likely to be at risk if the pathogen is introduced, and demonstrate that climate change may cause a remarkable shift in the distribution range of the disease. We further show that MAST can be used to predict the occurrence of WND, with the highest probability in areas where MAST was 8.3 {degrees}C. Our results highlight the importance of environmental factors in controlling the manifestation of disease in localities where both the pathogen and suitable hosts are present, and the massive impact climate change could have in reshaping and expanding the geographic range where WND can occur.