A century of sampling at an ecological preserve reveals declining diversity of wild bees

We analyzed the wild bee community from 1921 to 2018 at a nature preserve in southern Michigan, USA using museum records and found significant shifts in the bee community. Across the near century of records, species richness peaked in the 1970s and 1980s. There was an intensive bee survey completed by F.C. Evans in 1972 and 1973. We attempted to replicate his effort in 2017 and 2018, and again found a significant decline in species richness and evenness. There was also evidence of declining abundance in many of the more common species. We also conducted traits analyses using neural networks, revealing that oligolectic ground-nesting bees and cleptoparasitic bees were more likely to be extirpated whereas polylectic cavity-nesting bees were more likely to have persisted. Additionally, larger body size was associated with increased probability of local extirpation for polylectic cavity-nesting species. Larger phenological range was associated with increased chances of persistence for polylectic species, while it was associated with extirpation for oligolectic ground-nesting species. Species in the contemporary samples also had a more southerly overall distribution compared to the historic one. Open Research StatementData used for analyses in this manuscript, including Evans original dataset from 1972/1973 with updated species nomenclature, will be permanently archived at the USDA Ag Data Commons after the acceptance of this manuscript and will be citable and accessible here: https://data.nal.usda.gov/dataset/century-sampling-ecological-preserve-reveals-declining-diversity-wild-bees. Complete instructions on how to access all data referenced in this manuscript can be found in Appendix S1.