Temperature and food chain length, but not latitude, explain region-specific kelp forest responses to an unprecedented heatwave

Kelp forests are among the most abundant coastal marine habitats but are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Between 2014 and 2016, an unprecedented heatwave and associated changes in trophic dynamics threatened kelp forests across the Northeast Pacific, with impacts documented from Mexico to Alaska. However, responses have varied substantially and remain poorly characterized across large stretches of coast, especially British Columbia (B.C.), which represents a significant percentage of the range of floating kelp species in the Northeast Pacific. Here, we explore variation in floating kelp (Macrocystis, Nereocystis) persistence pre- and post-heatwave across a >675 km latitudinal gradient, asking whether B.C. kelp forests are of conservation concern. We assembled and analyzed available quantitative kelp data, comparing snapshots of kelp extent before (1994 - 2007) and after (2018 - 2021) the heatwave in 11 regions spanning a range of temperature and sea otter-occupancy statuses, and contextualizing these with time series analyses, where available (n = 7 regions). We provide strong evidence that kelp forests have declined in many regions but with evidence of refugia at both local and regional scales. Kelp forest persistence was negatively correlated with summer sea temperatures in southern B.C., where temperatures varied by ~6{degrees}C across sites, at times exceeding species thermal tolerances. Kelp dynamics in northern regions appeared instead to be modulated by top-down control by urchins and sea otters. Our results demonstrate that B.C.s kelp forest have been substantially reduced in recent years but that regional and local-scale factors influence the resilience of forests to large-scale perturbations.