The interplay between pre-season population susceptibility and the effectiveness of the rolled out vaccination control the timing and size of an emerging seasonal influenza wave in England
Panovska-Griffiths, J.; van Leeuwen, E.; Elgohari, S.; Charlett, A.; Watson, C.
Show abstract
1.Relaxing social distancing measures and reduced level of influenza over the last two seasons may lead to a winter 2022 influenza wave in England. We used an established model for influenza transmission and vaccination to evaluate the rolled out influenza immunisation programme over October to December 2022. Specifically, we explored how the interplay between pre-season population susceptibility and influenza vaccine efficacy control the timing and the size of a possible winter influenza wave. Our findings suggest that susceptibility affects the timing and the height of a potential influenza wave, with higher susceptibility leading to an earlier and larger influenza wave while vaccine efficacy controls the size of the peak of the influenza wave. With pre-season susceptibility higher than pre-COVID-19 levels, under the planned vaccine programme an early influenza epidemic wave is possible, its size dependent on vaccine effectiveness against the circulating strain. If pre-season susceptibility is low and similar to pre-COVID levels, the planned influenza vaccine programme with an effective vaccine could largely suppress a winter 2022 influenza outbreak in England.
Matching journals
The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation 96%
- Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: a modelling analysis 96%
- Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation 95%
Similar papers in this journal
- Predicted Norovirus Resurgence in 2021-2022 Due to the Relaxation of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Associated with COVID-19 Restrictions in England: A Mathematical Modelling Study 95%
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccinating school children required to contain SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreaks in Australia: a modelling analysis 94%
- An assessment of the vaccination of school-aged children in England 94%
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Exploring the role of mass immunisation in influenza pandemic preparedness: a modelling study for the UK context 97%
- Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and immunity waning: a modelling study for Portugal 94%
- Predicting immune protection against outcomes of infectious disease from population-level effectiveness data with application to COVID-19 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- A novel, scenario-based approach to comparing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies across nations 94%
- Border quarantine, vaccination and public health measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 importations: a modelling study 94%
- Integrated Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions based Strategies in Ontario, Canada, as a Case Study: a Mathematical Modeling Study 94%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.