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Evaluating the use of social contact data to produce age-specific forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 incidence

2022-12-03 epidemiology Title + abstract only
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Short-term forecasts can provide predictions of how an epidemic will change in the near future and form a central part of outbreak mitigation and control. Renewal-equation based models are increasingly popular. They infer key epidemiological parameters from historical epidemiological data and forecast future epidemic dynamics without requiring complex mechanistic assumptions. However, these models typically ignore interaction between age-groups, partly due to challenges in parameterising a time ...

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