Genetic and structural data on the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BQ.1 variant reveal its low potential for epidemiological expansion

The BQ.1 SARS-CoV-2 variant, also known as Cerberus, is one of the most recent Omicron descendant lineages. Compared to its direct progenitor BA.5, BQ.1 carries out some additional spike mutations in some key antigenic site which confer it further immune escape ability over other circulating lineage. In such a context, here we performed a genome-based survey aimed to obtain an as complete as possible nuance of this rapidly evolving Omicron subvariant. Genetic data suggests that BQ.1 represents an evolutionary blind background, lacking of the rapid diversification which is typical of a dangerous lineage. Indeed, the evolutionary rate of BQ.1 is very similar to that of BA.5 (7.6 x 10-4 and 7 x 10-4 subs/site/year, respectively), which is circulating by several months. Bayesian Skyline Plot reconstruction, indicates low level of genetic variability, suggesting that the peak has been reached around September 3, 2022. Structure analyses performed by comparing the properties of BQ.1 and BA.5 RBD indicated that the impact of the BQ.1 mutations on the affinity for ACE2 may be modest. Likewise, immunoinformatic analyses showed modest differences between the BQ.1 and the BA5 potential B-cells epitope. In conclusion, genetic and structural analysis on SARS-CoV-2 BQ.1 suggest that, it does not show evidence about its particular dangerous or high expansion capability. The monitoring genome-based must continue uninterrupted for a better understanding of its descendant and all other lineages.