Using species richness calculations to model the global profile of unsampled pathogenic variants: examples from BRCA1 and BRCA2

There have been many surveys of genetic variation in BRCA1 and BRCA2 to identify variant prevalence and catalogue population specific variants, yet none have evaluated the magnitude of unobserved variation. We applied species richness estimation methods from ecology to estimate "variant richness" and determine how many germline pathogenic BRCA1/2 variants have yet to be identified and the frequency of these missing variants in different populations. We also estimated the prevalence of germline pathogenic BRCA1/2 variants and identified those expected to be most common. Data was obtained from a literature search including studies conducted globally that tested the entirety of BRCA1/2 for pathogenic variation. Across countries, 45% to 88% of variants were estimated to be missing, i.e., present in the population but not observed in study data. Estimated variant frequencies in each country showed a higher proportion of rare variants compared to recurrent variants. The median prevalence estimate of BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers was 0.64%. BRCA1 c.68_69del is likely the most recurrent BRCA1/2 variant globally due to its estimated prevalence in India. Modeling variant richness using ecology methods may assist in evaluating clinical targeted assays by providing a picture of what is observed with estimates of what is still unknown.