Geospatial assessment of racial/ethnic composition, social vulnerability, and lead service lines in New York City

BackgroundThe state of New York expects to receive $115 million in 2022 alone from the US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act to support the replacement of lead water service lines. ObjectivesTo determine the number and proportion of Potential Lead water service lines across New York City (NYC), and the association between racial/ethnic composition, housing vulnerability, and child lead exposure vulnerability with service line type (Potential Lead, Unknown) at the census tract level for N= 2,083 NYC tracts. MethodsWe used conditional autoregressive Bayesian Poisson models to assess the relative risk (median posterior estimates, and 95% credible interval, CrI) of service line type per 20% higher proportion of residents in a given racial/ethnic group, and per higher housing vulnerability and child lead exposure vulnerability index scores corresponding to the interquartile range. We also evaluated the associations in flexible natural cubic spline models. ResultsOut of 854,672 residential service line records, 136,891 (16.0%) were Potential Lead and 227,443 (26.6%) were Unknown. In fully adjusted models, higher proportions of Hispanic/Latino residents and higher child lead exposure vulnerability were associated with Potential Lead service lines in flexible spline models and linear models (RR 1.15, 95% CrI 1.11, 1.21, and RR 1.11, 95% CrI 1.02, 1.20, respectively). Associations were modified by borough; Potential Lead service lines were associated with higher proportions of non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Asian residents in the Bronx and Manhattan, and with higher proportions of non-Hispanic Black residents in Queens. DiscussionNYC has a high number of Potential Lead and Unknown service lines. Communities with a high proportion of Hispanic/Latino residents and those with children who are already highly vulnerable to lead exposures from numerous sources are disproportionately impacted by Potential Lead service lines. These findings can inform equitable service line replacement across NY state and NYC.