Selection leads to remarkable variability in the outcomes of hybridization across replicate hybrid zones

Hybrid zones have been viewed as an opportunity to see speciation in action. When hybrid zones are replicated, it is assumed that if the same genetic incompatibilities are maintaining reproductive isolation across all instances of secondary contact, those incompatibilities should be identifiable by consistent patterns in the genome. In contrast, changes in allele frequencies due to genetic drift should be idiosyncratic for each hybrid zone. To test this assumption, we simulated 20 replicates of each of 12 hybrid zone scenarios with varied genetic incompatibilities, rates of migration, selection and different starting population size ratios of parental species. We found remarkable variability in the outcomes of hybridization in replicate hybrid zones, particularly with Bateson-Dobzhansky-Muller incompatibilities and strong selection. We found substantial differences among replicates in the overall genomic composition of individuals, including admixture proportions, inter-specific ancestry complement, and number of ancestry junctions. Additionally, we found substantial variation in genomic clines among replicates at focal loci, regardless of locus-specific selection. We conclude that processes other than selection are responsible for some consistent outcomes of hybridization, whereas selection on incompatibilities can lead to genomically widespread and highly variable outcomes. We highlight the challenge of mapping between pattern and process in hybrid zones and call attention to how selection against incompatibilities will commonly lead to variable outcomes. We hope that this study informs future research on replicate hybrid zones and encourages further development of statistical techniques, theoretical models, and exploration of additional axes of variation to understand reproductive isolation.