Alternative stable states, nonlinear behavior, and predictability of microbiome dynamics

Microbiome dynamics are both crucial indicators and drivers of human health, agricultural output, and industrial bio-applications. However, predicting microbiome dynamics is notoriously difficult because communities often show abrupt structural changes, such as "dysbiosis" in human microbiomes. We here integrate theoretical and empirical bases for anticipating drastic shifts of microbial communities. We monitored 48 experimental microbiomes for 110 days and observed that various community-level events, including collapse and gradual compositional changes, occurred according to a defined set of environmental conditions. We then confirmed that the abrupt community changes observed through the time-series could be described as shifts between "alternative stable states" or dynamics around complex attractors. Furthermore, collapses of microbiome structure were successfully anticipated by means of the diagnostic threshold defined with the energy landscape analysis of statistical physics or that of a stability index of nonlinear mechanics. These results indicate that abrupt microbiome events in complex microbial communities can be forecasted by extending classic ecological concepts to the scale of species-rich microbial systems.