The Impact of Schools on the Transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy
Lattanzio, S.
Show abstract
This paper studies the effect of school re-openings and closures on the spread of Sars-Cov-2 in Italy. Exploiting different re-opening dates across regions after the summer break 2020, I show that early opening regions experience on average 1,900 more cases per day in the 40 days following school re-openings compared with late opening ones. However, the uncertainty around the estimates is large and suggests a wide dispersion in the effects of school re-openings on Sars-Cov-2 transmission. I also study the effect of school closures in Campania, one of the biggest regions in Southern Italy. Using a synthetic control approach, I show that school closures are associated with lower case numbers relative to the counterfactual group, particularly in younger age groups. In contrast, I find no significant effects on older age groups, who are more likely to require hospitalization. Finally, exploiting survey data on incidence rates in schools, I provide descriptive evidence on the increased incidence among teachers and students relative to the general population, following school re-openings.
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