Size of societal volunteering predicts COVID-19 mortality

IntroductionDifferent countries responded differently to the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of timing and stringency of measures, and in types of policies adopted. Typically, policy makers tried to balance the capacity of healthcare systems to take care of the ill (as determined by ICU capacity, availability of nurses, etc.), with safeguarding economic output (preventing total lockdown of the labor force, etc.). Later on, also a broader array of considerations such as impact on schooling or the need for social contact were taken into account to varying degrees. The broad and relatively fast availability of data on healthcare and economic capacity, together with the political estimate that these were the most critical determinants for maintaining societal structure and compliance with the measures taken, in many countries prioritized decision-making. What received far less attention, in part due to the difficulty of obtaining reliable data in a timely manner, was the opposite question: to what extent do societal structures - besides healthcare and economic systems - contribute to a countrys resilience during catastrophes such as the pandemic? While it is commonly understood that the impact of a pandemic goes beyond its death count, perhaps the death count itself is impacted by the way societies are structured. One example of such societal structure is the contribution of volunteers during the COVID-19 response. Volunteers may contribute to well-functioning societies in different ways, both through practical actions (e.g. knitting face masks) as by strengthening societal cohesion (e.g. encouraging fellow citizens to comply with measures). This paper quantifies the association between COVID-19 mortality and the size of societal volunteering, using the unique context of the COVID-19 crisis with its intensity, sudden onset and global spread.