Spatial Cluster Modeling of Rodent Infestations and Leptospirosis Risks in SE Asian Urban Areas

Urban areas in the Southeast Asia Region are characterized by rainfall, river networks, and rodent infestations. Combinations of these adverse conditions will lead to the increasing risk of leptospirosis as usually contained in rodents. Then this study aims to assess the spatial pattern of rodent infestations and estimate the potential leptospirosis risks using environmental variables including distance to the river and rainfall in a city in SE Asia. The spatial modeling of rodent infestations was developed based on GIS and interpolation analysis. Meanwhile, the cluster modeling of rodent infestations was developed using the K-means clustering method. The results revealed the rodent infestations represented by two rodent species were Rattus rattus and Rattus norvegicus. R. rattus has a higher abundance than R. norvegicus. In contrast, R. norvegicus has wider distribution areas than R. rattus. Regarding the distribution areas, both species overlapped in the Southern parts of the city. R. rattus and R. norvegicus showed a distinct cluster characterized by a high rodent population with affinity for the nearest river, and this indicates the urban inhabitants near the river have more leptospirosis risk. The model of leptospirosis risks estimated an urban area of 35.182 km2 or 17.56% having leptospirosis potential.