Climate biogeography of Arabidopsis thaliana: linking distribution models, individual performance, and life history

AIMPatterns of individual variation are key to testing hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying biogeographic patterns. However, it is challenging to gather data on individual-level variation at large spatial scales. Model organisms are potentially important systems for biogeographical studies, given the available range-wide natural history collections, and the importance of providing biogeographical context to their genetic and phenotypic diversity. LOCATIONGlobal TAXONArabidopsis thaliana ("Arabidopsis") METHODSWe fit occurrence records to climate data, and then projected the distribution of Arabidopsis under last glacial maximum, current, and future climates. We confronted model predictions with individual performance measured on 2,194 herbarium specimens, and we asked whether predicted suitability was associated with life-history and genomic variation measured on [~]900 natural accessions. RESULTSThe most important climate variables constraining the Arabidopsis distribution were winter cold in northern and high elevation regions and summer heat in southern regions. Herbarium specimens from regions with lower habitat suitability in both northern and southern regions were smaller, supporting the hypothesis that the distribution of Arabidopsis is constrained by climate-associated factors. Climate anomalies partly explained interannual variation in herbarium specimen size, but these did not closely correspond to local limiting factors identified in the distribution model. Late-flowering genotypes were absent from the lowest suitability regions, suggesting slower life histories are only viable closer to the center of the realized niche. We identified glacial refugia farther north than previously recognized, as well as refugia concordant with previous population genetic findings. Lower latitude populations, known to be genetically distinct, are most threatened by future climate change. The recently colonized range of Arabidopsis was well-predicted by our native-range model applied to certain regions but not others, suggesting it has colonized novel climates. MAIN CONCLUSIONSIntegration of distribution models with performance data from vast natural history collections is a route forward for testing biogeographical hypotheses about species distributions and their relationship with evolutionary fitness across large scales.